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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth consecutive UK leader to occupy the position over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – three of them in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three warring blocs – left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are nigh.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both the prime ministers before Lecornu – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the next day, he resigned. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he cited political rigidity, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job virtually unworkable.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a last-ditch effort to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu persisted in his duties, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would name a fresh premier two days later.

Macron kept his promise – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the nation's opposing groups were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the Socialist party, who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the administration would likely endure those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be demanding further compromises. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, like his predecessors, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would confront identical numerical challenges.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But this also remains unclear.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”