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Well. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.